The Institute for Energy Security (IES) has projected fuel prices to reduce in the second half of this month.
“The various changes in prices of the commodities on the international market are expected to affect local market prices in Ghana. For this window, with the 1.49 per cent reduction in the price of the International Benchmark- Brent crude, the 2.17 per cent decrease in price of Gasoline, the 1.77 percent decrease in Gasoil price and the marginal depreciation of 0.17 per cent of the local currency against the US Dollar; the IES projects that price of fuel on the domestic market at the various pumps are set to dip as we enter the second Pricing-Window of August 2021,” IES said in a statement yesterday signed by its Research Analyst, Fritz Moses and copied to the Ghanaian Times
It said the downward adjustment may however be offset by the adjustments from the largest local market shareholder, GOIL, TOTAL and Shell.
IES said its monitoring done on a “15-day rolling basis,” indicated that the price of fuel on the local Ghanaian market remained stable within the window under assessment.
“Price of petroleum products within the first Pricing-window of August 2021 saw the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) continues to maintain prices at the pump from the first pricing window of July. The current national average price of fuel per litre at the pump remains pegged at GH¢5.97 for both Gasoline and Gasoil on account of the relative price stability,” it said.
The statement said the pricing-window also saw, Zen Petroleum, Benab Oil, Cash Oil, Goodness Oil, Top Oil and Frimps Oil recorded as the OMCs that sold the least-priced fuel on the local market.
On the World Oil Market development, the international benchmark for Ghana, IES said Brent crude saw its price on average terms selling at about $72.10 per barrel mark representing a 1.49 per cent decrease from the previous window’s average price of $73.19 per barrel mark.
It said the price of the Brent Crude suffered the usual volatilities sourced from the constant geopolitical issues and the spread of the Delta variant of the COVID-19.
“Prices dipped in this Windows in response to fears that the rising COVID-19 cases will affect demand for oil and its products. The rise in cases has been fuelled almost entirely by the Delta Variant of the virus and the new Delta Plus variant both of which have highly contagious infection rates,” IES said.
It said the place of concern was largely China which was the world’s largest importer of oil where cases continued to rise amid the Delta Variant spread from its shores.
“The prices bounced back as the market seemed to shrug off the fears brought on by the lockdowns in China and other parts of Asia. The rise in demand across the Atlantic outweighed the impact from the COVID restrictions. The increase was also boosted by the passage of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill in the US Senate which is assumed will increase demand in oil products and improve the economic performance of US in the short-to-mid-term, providing the much needed support for prices,” IES said.
It said the rebound in fuel demand in India following the lifting of restrictions on New Delhi in July, the highest since April this year also incentivised the markets hope of rebound in demand for oil products.
IES said the country’s crude oil imports in June-July dropped to an average of the 2014-2015 levels of 3.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) but saw a leap in the July-August loading of 4.2 mbpd on the back of the demand recovery.
BY KINGSLEY ASARE