OPEC+ increases oil productionas strikes continue in Middle East

March 2, 2026

1 minute read

OPEC+ nations, meeting virtually Sunday, agreed to increase oil production slightly as a new wave of strikes bombard Iran and the surrounding region.

The group of leading oil-producing nations said it would raise its daily output by 206,000 barrels a day after pausing incremental production increases earlier in the year. In the fourth quarter, OPEC boosted production by 137,000 barrels per day.

The group, in a statement, did not mention the conflict, but said it will continue to assess market conditions.

The production increase may somewhat blunt the expected surge in oil prices when the futures market opens yesterday, but energy analysts didn’t expect the production increases to do much to keep prices in check.

“We are at a point of high uncertainty,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “There will likely be a lot of ups and downs in the next 72 hours.”

Iran has struck many of its neighbours, but so far it hasn’t attacked other countries’ oilfields and refineries as it has in the past. Oil will probably move higher on the risk of reduced Middle East supply, Pickering said. But if that disruption actually happens, prices could easily top $80 a barrel, up from around $70 on Friday when the market closed.

Another factor: The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flows. Iran controls the northern coast of the strait, and shipping through the pinch point has been effectively reduced to a trickle. It’s not clear how long traffic will be disrupted. But that might not matter.

“Oil doesn’t need to be physically halted for prices to move sharply,” noted Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group. “Insurance costs, shipping reroutes and precautionary stockpiling alone can tighten supply expectations.”

Analysts don’t expect OPEC to increase production much more, even if prices surge: The oil-producing countries don’t have much spare capacity left after raising output throughout 2025. – CNN

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