Ghana projected to grow at 4.8% in 2026…driven by services sector, strong economic recovery —World Bank
Ghana’s economic growth is projected to slow to 4.8 per cent in 2026, down from a strong 6 per cent expansion in 2025, the World Bank has said.
The forecast, contained in the Bank’s Africa Economic Update report, points to a moderating recovery trajectory despite signs of improving macroeconomic stability, including easing inflationary pressures.
According to the report, inflation in Ghana was expected to end the year at nine per cent, bringing it within the target band of the Bank of Ghana.
The World Bank noted that Ghana’s growth in the near term would continue to be driven largely by the services sector and ongoing economic recovery efforts, but cautioned that sustaining this momentum would depend on fiscal discipline and effective debt management.
It warned, however, that the outlook remained subject to downside risks, including weak investor confidence, constrained access to external financing and broader global economic uncertainties.
The report called for urgent reforms to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation, particularly through tax measures, in order to reduce reliance on borrowing and enhance fiscal sustainability.
In addition, it underscored the importance of implementing reforms in the energy sector, including the Energy Sector Recovery Programme, to address persistent financial challenges and mitigate fiscal risks.
At the regional level, the report indicated that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa was projected to remain flat at 4.1 per cent in 2026, unchanged from 2025, but with increasing vulnerabilities.
It explained that the region’s recovery from a series of global shocks over the past decade was showing signs of strain, with projections revised downward by 0.3 percentage points compared to earlier estimates published in October 2025.
The World Bank attributed the subdued outlook to a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions such as the conflict in the Middle East, high public debt burdens and longstanding structural constraints.
Those challenges, the report said, continued to weigh on the region’s ability to accelerate growth and generate sufficient employment opportunities.
The report also cautioned that rising prices of fuel, food and fertilizer, coupled with tighter global financial conditions, could push inflation higher and disproportionately affect vulnerable households.
The report further observed that high debt servicing costs were limiting many countries’ capacity to invest in critical infrastructure and development priorities.
It noted that public capital investment across the region remained about 20 per cent below 2014 levels, while the ratio of external public debt service to revenue had risen sharply from nine per cent in 2017 to 18 per cent in 2025.
Looking ahead, the World Bank emphasised the need for African countries, including Ghana, to pursue more productive, diversified and private sector-led growth to create jobs for a rapidly expanding labour force.
It recommended strategic investments in infrastructure, skills development and institutional reforms to lower the cost of doing business and attract private investment.
The report also mentioned the role of well-designed industrial policies in driving economic transformation, stressing those policies must be carefully implemented and aligned with each country’s comparative advantages.
Speaking on the findings, the World Bank Group Chief Economist for the Africa Region, Mr Andrew Dabalen, urged governments to prioritise support for vulnerable populations while maintaining macroeconomic stability.
He stressed the importance of prudent fiscal management and inflation control to help countries navigate current economic shocks and position themselves for stronger recovery.
BY KINGSLEY ASARE
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